Vanity Metrics Are Liars: What Numbers Actually Predict Revenue
There are two kinds of “good news” in marketing and sales.
The first kind is the stuff that feels good in the moment: more followers, more impressions, more website traffic, more likes, more “engagement.” It looks like momentum. It sounds like growth. It gives you something to point to when you’re trying to stay optimistic.
The second kind is the stuff that actually pays the bills.
And if you’re being honest, you already know which one matters when payroll hits.
In No Bullshit Marketing fashion, let’s say it plainly: vanity metrics are often loud, flattering, and useless. They can make you feel like you’re winning while your revenue stays flat.
This blog is about cutting through that noise, focusing on the numbers that predict revenue, and building a scoreboard that tells the truth—early enough to do something about it.
Why Vanity Metrics Trap Smart Business Owners
Vanity metrics are seductive because they’re easy to find and easy to celebrate. Social platforms hand them to you. Ads dashboards highlight them. SEO tools package them in pretty charts.
But here’s the catch: most vanity metrics are top-of-funnel signals, and top-of-funnel signals don’t automatically translate into booked work.
Traffic doesn’t mean qualified leads. A spike in impressions doesn’t mean people are ready to buy. Even a flood of calls doesn’t mean you’ll close jobs—especially if the wrong calls are coming in or your follow-up is slow.
Vanity metrics aren’t always “bad.” The problem is when they become the headline, and the numbers that actually drive revenue become an afterthought.
That’s how owners end up saying things like:
“Marketing is working… I think?”
“We’re getting attention but not enough sales.”
“We’re busier, but somehow not making more money.”
Which leads to the worst business decision of all: guessing.
The Numbers That Actually Predict Revenue
If you want to know whether you’re going to hit your revenue goal, you don’t need more charts—you need a few core metrics that track the path from interest to income.
Think of your business like a pipeline. Revenue is the outcome of several steps happening reliably:
People find you → reach out → get booked → show up → get sold → get delivered → leave reviews → refer friends
Most businesses only track the front end (“are people seeing us?”) or the back end (“what did we make?”). The magic is in the middle—and the middle is measurable.
The best predictor isn’t traffic. It’s conversion.
Here are the metrics that tend to matter most for service businesses:
1) Qualified leads
Not “clicks.” Not “messages.” Not “page views.”
Qualified leads are people who are in your service area, want what you sell, and can afford it.
If your lead volume is up but revenue isn’t, you might be generating noise, not opportunity.
2) Speed to lead
This one is painful because it’s not glamorous—and it is often the real issue.
If it takes hours (or days) to respond to a form fill, quote request, or voicemail, your close rate will suffer. Not because your work isn’t great. Because the buyer moved on.
3) Booking rate
Of the qualified leads coming in, how many actually get booked for an estimate or appointment?
A low booking rate points to issues like:
poor call handling
weak scripts
unclear process
no urgency
staff overwhelmed
you’re attracting price shoppers
4) Show rate
How many booked appointments actually happen?
If people are no-showing, it’s not “just how it is.” It often means your confirmation process is sloppy, your expectations aren’t clear, or the prospect wasn’t qualified properly.
5) Close rate
How many completed estimates turn into signed jobs?
Close rate is where a lot of owners get defensive… but it’s also one of the easiest levers to pull. Small improvements here can create big revenue jumps without increasing marketing spend.
6) Average job value
Two companies can close the same number of jobs and end the year in completely different places.
Average job value is pricing, packaging, upsells, scope control, and confidence in what you’re worth.
7) Capacity (can you deliver what you’re trying to sell?)
This is the part people ignore. If you’re booked solid for weeks, your future revenue may look great, but your customer experience may be melting down.
Capacity affects everything: response time, show rate, reviews, referrals, and your team’s sanity.
8) Reviews (and review velocity)
Followers don’t build trust the way proof does.
Reviews influence conversion at multiple points: whether they call, whether they book, whether they choose you over someone else. Review velocity (how consistently you’re getting them) matters too, because it signals that your business is active and reliable.
“But Aren’t Followers Still Important?”
Sure. Sometimes.
Here’s the more honest take: followers can help with visibility, credibility, and recruiting. But followers don’t equal demand. And demand doesn’t equal revenue unless your pipeline is tight.
So instead of asking, “Are we growing on social?” ask:
Is social generating qualified leads or strengthening conversion?
Are people mentioning it when they call?
Is it building trust with the right audience?
If social is not supporting revenue outcomes, it shouldn’t be the metric steering the ship.
The Scoreboard That Tells the Truth (Early)
The goal is not to drown in data. The goal is to spot problems early—while they’re fixable.
Every week, you should be able to answer:
Are leads up or down?
Are they qualified?
Are we responding fast?
Are we booking?
Are we closing?
Is job value holding?
Is capacity healthy?
Are we building proof (reviews)?
When you track those, you stop reacting emotionally to whatever the dashboard screams at you that day.
You start managing.
The No BS Rule: If You Can’t Take Action From It, Don’t Track It
A good metric creates a decision.
A vanity metric creates a conversation that ends with, “Well… at least we’re getting attention.”
If a number doesn’t tell you what to do next, it’s entertainment—not leadership.